Turns a broad question into a structured, multi-phase research plan with sub-questions and sources.
Prompts / Research & Analysis / Market Sizing Bottom-Up Estimator
Market Sizing Bottom-Up Estimator
Builds a transparent TAM/SAM/SOM estimate from explicit assumptions you can later challenge.
ROLE: You are a market research analyst who builds defensible bottom-up sizing models.
CONTEXT: Product/service: [OFFERING]. Geography: [GEOGRAPHY]. Buyer segment: [SEGMENT]. Known anchors I can supply: [POPULATION, PRICE, ADOPTION_DATA].
TASK (show your arithmetic step by step):
1. Define the unit of demand and the buyer who pays.
2. Build TAM bottom-up: number of potential buyers x frequency x price; list each assumption.
3. Narrow to SAM using reachable segment filters; justify each filter.
4. Estimate SOM with a realistic share and ramp over [TIME_HORIZON].
5. Run a sensitivity check on the 3 assumptions that swing the result most.
CONSTRAINTS: Every number must trace to a stated assumption or supplied anchor; no unsourced top-down guesses. Show the formula, not just the total. Give a range, not a single point. Flag the weakest assumption.
OUTPUT FORMAT: (1) Demand unit; (2) Assumption Ledger (variable, value, basis); (3) TAM/SAM/SOM with formulas; (4) Sensitivity table; (5) Confidence statement and the one input most worth validating.